got my mummified raptor skull after 5 kills! have anyone else had some luck yet?
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I got that some time back, not sure if from the tank bonus chest or from that wheel of fortune from the raid in DF drop! It’s quite a cool mount isn’t it. Gratz!
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it will be a looooooong month for mount collectors. Quest for invincible… ACCEPTED
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I’m finishing off shadow mourne currently so I’ve been running this anyway, imagine if I get the axe AND the mount completed! (18/50 shards before this reset)
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Soooooooo, let me get this right…
If Ashes of A’lar has say 0.1% chance of dropping then with the buff it’s now 10 times the chance so 1% 
I think I will stay unsubbed 
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This is what happens when you get info from youtube videos and useless content creators. You get a flat 5 % increase so 0.1 becomes 5.1
Also most mounts are closer to 1% than 0… there is like only one in the pool which is that low.
ashes alar isnt so rare. i doubt is 1%
Actually I got it off the official website this morning…
“drop rates increased by up to 10 times (and in one case, 25 times!)”
I just made up an example, I don’t actually know the drop rate of Ashes
Up to… and again if the mount is around 1% the 5% flat increase is still in the “up to 10 times” range.
Because some mounts are 0.5% chance of dropping, so 5% is indeed (roughly) x10. And I’m too lazy to find the original announcement but I believe it said one drop was increased 25 times so that fits 0.2%.
Eeyup.
This x10 buff should be the default buff on ALL legacy content, not made a flippin’ event, with 5% being the lowest drop rate.
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I agree but they are probably doing it because player numbers have dropped massively lately !
I have 3 days of my sub left and was considering taking a break until this buff came along
I hope I don’t cause a firestorm of hate here, but I was surprised to get Ashes on my first run today. Yikes.
On Reddit there is a guy that found a brand new add-on that automatically spamms /lol at people that are on rare mounts when the user got the mount this month
That how low some people are
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5%, you need about 13 attempts for a coin-toss in getting it at least once.
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Drop rates doesnt add up with the number of tries. You can do it infinite times and still not getting the mount.
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There it was! The gamblers fallacy accusation!
Surprisingly been a while for that one.
No, this is not gamblers fallacy. Gamblers fallacy implies that if you throw a dice, say 1, then the odds of hitting anything other than one next time is higher, which is clearly not the case since the odds for any given number will always be 1/6.
All i’ve done is calculate the odds of something happening after x amount of attempts.
So at 5% drop-rate. The odds of not getting something is 95% aka 0.95.
Throw that into the formula (odds)^(attempts)=(odds of happening at least once)
(0.95)^(attempts)=(0.5)
and you get attempts = about 13.
Which means that you have a coin-toss in getting at least one, after 13 attempts. Still not 100%
Yea, the problem is I dont understand this sentence.
To make the droprate of these things more digestable, i find the estimate amount of attempts needed for the odds to be closer to a coin-toss, aka 50% chance.
The odds for every attempt is still 5%. But after 13 attempts, i know that there would have been mathematically, a 50% chance for me to get it at least once.
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