For anyone interested, I have checked out the amount of items on the auction houses (for usage as estimates of total population count) for both Earthshaker and Flamelash. Here are the results today:
Last Monday I also looked at this for Earthshaker, as I was interested in transferring there. Back then, I got the following result:
Monday December 1
Earthshaker - 14k Alliance, 16k Horde
While these are obviously estimates, it seems that as of right now Earthshaker is slightly Alliance favored (55% - 45%) and the Flamelash is extremely horde favored (95% - 5%) with the Alliance side being completely deserted.
From my perspective Earthshaker still feels horde favoured but the 55:45 A/H ratio might feel wrong due to horde generally being more active in pvp. Right now the whole server is one giant graveyard there is mass pvp going around everywhere even in places like Stonetalon mountains and Loch Modan
So in reality (whilst it’s bad for Flamelash no doubt) the people who moved made the smart decision if they wanted a more balanced server.
55% - 45% is bad for neither side imo… thats as close to balanced as anywhere is likely going to get.
I mean just by doing the rough math with your rough math… they have left a 10k alliance to 17k horde server… (Again rough math if we count those differences as people who moved over).
Yes Earthshaker seems very balanced right now and is a very large server. It would not surprise me if it is close to being full. I only feel bad for any Alliance left on Flamelash that didn’t get the news in time, at least the horde side has a healthy population and cross server battlegrounds means they are not that screwed.