We’ve been running MC for a year now and so far we had:
1x Geddon Binding (more than 11 months ago!), 0x Garr Bindings, 1x Eye of Sulfuras in our mainraid.
Other raids on our server have had 10+ Garr Bindings and 0x Geddon.
We switch raidlead every week and we have different people entering first.
Are we just so unlucky or are other experiencing the same?
As a guild, we’re just burned out from having to run MC for such a long time. Even if it’s “just” Garr+Geddon that we do weekly, it’s getting to a point where it just kills all my motivation to log in ever again.
So how is loot determined, after all? Back then the theory (which was also confirmed in a blue post iirc) was, that the loot is generated at spawn time. That means the first person entering and therefore opening the raid?
Has this changed with classic now being based off a different backend?
With 4.28% drop chance you have ~90% chance to get atleast one after 52 runs.
0.9572^52
In other words, not getting one after a year is very unlikely but not in any way extraordinary.
There is something called the Gambler’s Fallacy and it is “the erroneous belief that if a particular event occurs more frequently than normal during the past it is less likely to happen in the future (or vice versa), when it has otherwise been established that the probability of such events does not depend on what has happened in the past.”
In Classic we some other fallacy where people instead believe there is a bug (I have seen variations of this thread for different items for years in Classic and private servers). And to be fair, that is not totally unreasonable to believe in a buggy game like this. But its most likely not.
You will have exactly the same drop chance on your 53d run as you did on your 1st run.
You will have 4.28% drop chance and not 91% that you get as a whole in retrospect.
How and when that is determined doesn’t matter. If it’s tied to one player or many doesn’t matter. There are no (as far as I know) diminishing returns or the opposite for any rng in Classic.
in theory: yes.
And still raid groups get the same loot every other week, which indicated loot tables.
So for 1 raid (however it is determined) the drop chance is say 8% and for the other 0.xxx% which averages to 4% overall
4,28%, lol. That’s what that statistics show. How many drops there have been in X amount of runs.
Or to be more specific according to Wowhead: 2007 drops in 46845 runs.
The actual odds that you get 0 bindings are 10% after 1 year / 52 runs and the chance of getting 10 bindings I don’t know how to calculate, but probably around 5% if I had to guess.
Check out this website: https://xplainthegame.com/dropchance-calculator/
We don’t have any evidence for the possible claim that the drop chance would be different for anyone or any raid based on anything other than normal RNG.
I understand what you are saying and what you are feeling. It’s normal. And as far as we know there are no bug or hidden loot table. Maybe there is, it’s not impossible or extraordinary, we don’t know, but we have no evidence or reason to believe that as of now.
There have been 46845 kills and 2007 drops (according to wowhead, don’t take that as an absolute fact, more like a guildline, but at some point it was close to those numbers). That means that some guild could get 52 drops in 52 weeks and some guild 0 drops. In average it’s 4,28%. There are no Diminish returns or the opposite on drops in Classic (as far as we know). Most guild will get around 2 drops in 1 year. Some more, some less. 1 in 10 guilds will not get any drops in 1 year.
Personally I have seen 2. Those two tanks quit recently though, so, yeah, lol.
Not it’s not. flipping a coin is 50:50 that doesn’t mean getting 10 heads in a row is 50:50. Getting 10 4.28% drops in 52 weeks is extremely lucky not 4,28%…
Literally every flip is 50:50 even after 10 heads in a row. If you flip head 10 times in a row the 11th flip will be 50:50 even if it’s 0,049% chance in retrospect to get 11 heads in a row.
Getting 10 drops in 52 tried with 4,28% chance is 0,1%. So if 1000 guilds did MC for 1 year your would expect on of those guilds to get 10 bindings from Geddon and 128 Guilds to get 0 binding from Geddon and 898 guild to get at least 1 and 650 guilds to get at least 2.
How to calculate the odds of getting the pair I have no idea.
It’s the same for the guild I’m in we’ve had 8+ Gedon bindings and 0 Garr so after a year of Classic we have 0 TF. We’ve also had 0 Eye of Sulfuras which means 0 Legendary items after a year of raiding as a guild. In Vanilla I was MT of my guild and we also didn’t get a single binding or eye drop. It’s just bad luck or rather I must be the bad luck.
you are really amazing at missing the point, you are missing the point to such a degree that I’m beginning to doubt your mental capacity in a serious manner.
Are you trolling right now?
Cause when some guilds get a ton of thunderfuries and other guilds get none in extremely short amount of times, yes that’s lucky but also an indication that the one thing computers cannot do (true randomization) is becoming apparent and it is clear that a # of factors are determining loot seeds here, what those factors are? blizzard said whoever enters the raid first and generates the ID you raid with is a factor (not the only one), I am personally of the opinion that probably another factor (which is incredibly common in generating random seeds for video game) is time, probably the day of the week, month, year, stuff like that all goes into randomizing it further, it wouldn’t surprise me if more factors go into it but its pretty common for MMOs to also randomize their lootseeds based on timestamps or snapshots, for example PSO’s random loot was being solved and it was found that on certain days of the week at certain times of day would be major factors in determining what loot could drop from any given mob.
for example in classic my current guild during phase 4 would raid BWL on saturday, we had 9 DFT drops in a row, we had 0 maladaths, 0 CTS drops.
Phase 5 hits and weré moving our main raid day to AQ so we swap to a different day for raiding, suddenly we get not 1, not 2, not 3, we’ve had almost 8 drops in a row now, same weird thing happened to chromatic tempered boots, we keep getting them since swapping raid days and now even rets have em as well, we’re not the only raid this stuff happens to. I ask around and some guilds that raid on sundays have had so many CTS drops even a hunter grabbed one to save it from being DEd, stuff like this happens over and over again to the point where it’s becoming clear it’s not just ‘good’ and ‘bad’ rng it’s largely to do with what lootseed you get but we still don’t really know all the factors that go into determining it outside of the one confirmed by blizz.
Jesus christ you’re trying to school everyone constantly when you’re missing the point over and over. No one in this thread has said the odds change on an idividual event, yet you keep stating it over and over.
“No one have claimed that”
4,28%, lol. That’s what that statistics show.
After another educataional reply to me I think you’ve finally got it that 10 drops of 4.28% isn’t 4.28% chance to happen. You can stop arguing with yourself now…
I think that you and others are making these points:
I answered:
This is absolutely wrong so I answered:
I explained that it literally is just bad RNG:
Then he said:
But really meant
And I answer
Then some other dude jumps in and start talking about coins making a Straw Man argument:
So I talk about that.
Now you are making this claim and this contradiction:
Yes that is lucky, that is RNG
You are contradiction yourself.
No it does not.
You have to provide EVIDENCE for such a claim. Computers cant do true randomization but that is on a scale the human mind can’t even comprehend. Doing normal rolls in an MMORP is random enough for the lifespan of a human.
You don’t even KNOW if such factors exist or how the work if they exist.
How do you know that? Why does that matter? How would that affect the chance of getting a rare drop? It will generate the loot in every 428 runs out of 10000 runs average. When it makes that randomization is not relevant. Why do you care about that?
You have presented an opinion in a discussion about facts. Do you have EVIDENCE to support this?
This is your hypotheses. The next step is to test that Hypotheses. After we see sufficient evidence we can start believing it.
Until we have sufficient evidence we have to say, we don’t know how the loot is generated but there is nothing that indicates that it’s not pure RNG.
That is not evidence or even an indication for anything other than normal RNG.
That is not evidence or even an indication for anything other than normal RNG.
That is not evidence or even an indication for anything other than normal RNG.
That is not evidence or even an indication for anything other than normal RNG.
it’s a shame the community figured stuff like the GUID targeting on onyxia, ragnaros etc so early on, but we still have no idea how exactly loot is generated.
