I have addressed sever different points in this thread.
What point have I missed?
I was talking to OP who seems to belive that the chance of getting the loot is not 4,28% EVERY try. I was pointing out that it is. I don’t know why you jumped in making Straw Man comments.
This is correct. But do we have any good reason not to believe it’s truly random?
ofc it is 4.28% on AVERAGE. That’s what drops / kills say worldwide.
But that still means, for a particular raid, that the chance is like 20% while for others it is significantly lower. I tried to explain that to you earlier, but I’m not sure you get the point.
Sure the statistics say 4.28% overall, but that’s not how loot tables work.
You can’t just explain it with “luck” that ONE SPECIFIC raid get Bindings every 3-4 weeks while others havn’t seen any. That’s not how it works.
No, the chance for that particular raid is 4,28% chance.
If your claim is that different raids have difference chance top generate the loot then you have to present EVIDENCE for such a claim. It can be anything really, anything can be called evidence, it doesn’t have to be a peer reviewed scientific paper. Do you have ANY evidence what so ever to support the claim that different raids have difference chance of getting loot at different times based on anything?
Do you have ANY evidence what so ever that loot tables exist and that it in anyway affect the RNG of getting loot?
Yes, you literally can. That’s how RNG works.
Yes it is. It literally is how it works. Some raids will get loot in a very unlikely way, most other raids get loot in a normal way. The more raids doing it the more likely it is to get some very unlikely results for some raids.
I presented you evidence already. There are certain raids that have significant more Bindings, DFTs, Reju Gems than others.
It is based on SOMETHING bound to those raids (be it time, leader, GUIDs of players) and over a long period of time, those raids have significant HIGHER drop chances for certain items while others have significant LOWER drop chances for those.
40 kills → 10 bindings = 25% for that raid that a binding drops.
40 kills → 0 bindings = 0% for that raid that a binding drops.
That is not evidence of anything. That’s normal RNG that is expected to happen when hundreds of thousand of guilds clear raids. In fact, it’s almost guaranteed to happen.
How do you know that and that it’s not just a simple roll RNG when the boss is killed?
This is a claim that you are making. Do you have any EVIDENCE for this claim?
That is not how chance works. Every raid and kill had 4,28% chance to get the loot. We have never seen any evidence or good indicating or good argument that it’s not ALWAYS the same chance.
Talking about colors with a blind person…
You are making factual wrong and absurd comments and have not present any good argument or any evidence what so ever that the loot is not just normal RNG rolls after a kill that is exactly the same for everyone.
It COULD be something else, but the time to believe that is when we have evidence for it.
The loot COULD be not really random based on various parameters, but the time to believe that is when we have evidence for it.
Dont forget to not only looking at a small scope. The item dropping, for the data to be measured if it is being accurate or not, is a global thing and not only a 1-guild thing.
Toss a coin 2 times and see if you get 1 tails and 1 heads. Sometimes you will get 100% rate on one of the sides for 2 tosses and sometimes it will be equal 50/50.
Now toss a coin 2 times, but ask 1000 people to do it as well. Collect all the data and see how many tails and how many heads you got. It should (and thats the keyword!!! s h o u l d) be close to 50/50.
RNG isn’t perfect and I would argue that while tossing a coin 2 times you can manipulate the strength in which you are throwing the coin in, unintentionally, so ARE computers doing when selecting “random numbers”. It’s only random because it appears to be random just like tossing a coin.
TLDR: What I’d propose is finding a bunch of goblins and sacrificing them to enhance your luck.
I would like to see ANY evidence that the loot is not generated when boss is killed and the game does a hidden roll 1-24 and if you roll 24 you get a binding.
I am not claiming this is how it works but so far no one have presented any evidence or even a good argument for that is not how it works.
I just want to point out how ABSURD this is.
You are using a claim without evidence that doesn’t prove anything as evidence for a claim.
There’s been a blue post back in vanilla, which said:
“Loot is generated upon creation.
As soon as you step into an instance, or a mob is created in the world, the loot that’s going to drop has already been determined.”
GMs can see loot BEFORE it drops, because it already is “in” the mob.
Because you don’t want to accept the fact, that certain raids have way higher dropchances than average and their loot is like ~70% identical every week?
Ok that is SOME evidence, good. Can you provide the LINK?
First of all. This is Classic and not Vanilla retail. We don’t know how it works in Classic. But this is SOME form of evidence, so I applaud that. Do you have the link so I can see the context?
Secondly, this doesn’t in anyway affect the chance of getting loot. It has no effect if the roll is done when you enter the instance or kill the boss.
There is no evidence that there is some Loot Table that in any way affect raids chance of getting loot.
I have seen your evidence and is not convinced on anything. So far it’s an interesting anecdote.
That is not a fact. That is an unreasonable hypotheses from you based on no evidence.
https://web.archive.org/web/20080206185544/http://forums.worldofwarcraft.com/thread.html?topicId=4311143050&postId=43107359902&sid=1
And there is more evidence that loot is generated at spawn time from TBC.
people used to log in after server restarts, zone into Sunwell and try to link the Warglaives from Atlas Loot. If it could be linked it meaned that there already is a raid ID open on that server which will drop it. Otherwise you got dc’d.
So if you were the only person doing this and you could link the warglaives, it meant that it will surely drop in your id (if you kept it open until raid)
Ok that are some interesting anecdotes.
How is it relevant? Don’t get me wrong, it’s interesting to see that GM comment from the past and your comments about TBC. Thanks you for posting this.
But how is it relevant here?
Even if the loot is generated when the boss spawns. Why would that in any way affect the CHANCE of some loot getting spawned?
I have seen no evidence what so ever that there are some form of hidden loot tables and that loot is not actually generated based on an RNG roll on either boss kill or boss spawn.
The “evidence” (it’s just claims and even if they are true it’s still not evidence) you have made about how some raids have very unlikely results is not evidence against RNG. You are expected to see that in such a large pool of results. And the more unlikely the results the more exposure they get.
so you admit computers can’t do true randomization and then devolve into what is the equivalent of a screaming child being told poop stinks congrats, no one is gonna get any better from reading your posts. stop.
This is why stemnerds across the world are being bullied again, you weren’t bullied enough my dude.
“computers can’t do true random”
“do you have any evidence computers can’t do true randomization hmmmmm”
You’re such a clown dude
You are a dishonest Straw Man and troll. You are taking my argument, out of context, disorting it and attacking the distortion:
Do you have anything constructive to add to this discussion or do you only want to troll and sabotage?
It is EXPECTED to have very unlikely results in true RNG and the more guilds that do it the more likely it is that SOME guild will have very unlikely results. In fact these very unlikely results are evidence FOR true RNG. If there were some hidden loot tables, the loot would be more evenly distributed without these extremes.
it is not, but you asked.
btw, few posts down the thread I linked, Drysc also said
I believe it uses a time stamp to seed the generator. So, there’s nothing you can influence within the game that would alter or coerce the generator.
So it is indeed “seeded” in some way and not just a roll.