Iirc the Warcraft movie was saved by the Chinese market, and according to the wiki there was more chinese players than from North America back in 2011.
(1. China, Asian Realms: 3.2 million players
- United States and Canada, North American Realms: 3.0 million players )
Since you seem to be well informed about the subs, do you have any info about the current situation of the asian realm ?
The wiki claimed there was around 4.8m on the EU & NA realm and 4.35M on the asian one (just added the subs per country of the same realm to get these numbers) in 2011.
If the asian realm suffured from the same sub losses than the western ones (if we take your min, around -61% between 2011 and now), WoW sub count could very well be currently above the 4M.