Okay, let’s look at reported numbers then.
Vanilla private servers have had hundreds of thousands of players for years now. If those players all, or for the most part, go to retail vanilla then it’ll be a success and it’ll last for many years, like how it has done already.
“Classic was great because it was new” Is a terribly incorrect statement nomatter what way you put it. The game was simply designed better in a lot of ways than how retail is today. Take away the quality of life features retail has and you’ve got nothing left while Classic barely has any of them to begin with and has a strong concept and design at its core. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying it was perfect. It definitely wasn’t.
Name one that gives as engaging an experience as Classic WoW does that’s not Runescape.
Most, no, none of them have never reached anywhere close to how many player that WoW has had.
Before you mention Final Fantasy which claims to have 14 million subs and be the worlds second-largest MMORPG – They don’t. Those are ‘Registered Accounts’, including free trials and the like. I’ve tried to find actual active account numbers but the numbers seem to vary from 600.000 to 800.000 in the sources that I came across, that’s being generous actually.
Nostalrius on its own, a PRIVATE server had 150.000 active players and 800.000 registered accounts.
Imagine competing with a 14-year old game that “was only great because it was new”.
FFVIX was released in 2013, meaning that after being live for 6 years they have yet to hit 1 million active players. Heck, even if i’m completely wrong about the 600k-800k players then FF is still nowhere near to what World of Warcraft had at 6-years old.
WoW hit 1.5 million active players in Q1 of Classic alone. 8.5 million in Q1 of TBC, keeping around 11.5 million active players throughout Wrath and eventually hitting a peak of around 12 mill in Cataclysm.
“WoW was great because it was new”, if that was really the case then they would have never been able to reach anything close to such numbers and manage to not only sustain but grow them for almost 7 years straight – only for them to decline because they changed their design philosophy away from what Classic was and to be aimed more towards casual players, “quality of life” changes, removing tons of content and limiting player choice aka the almost complete opposite of what Vanilla WoW is at its core.
Let’s go back to what Final Fantasy did and call out the number of total accounts ever created to make another comparison.
In 2014 Blizzard published an infographic in where they showed off their achievements in numbers.
(see here: media . wow-europe . com/infographic/en/world-of-warcraft-infographic . html Remove the spaces ofc, I can’t post links otherwise)
In their 10 years as an MMORPG World of Warcraft had reached 100 Million unique accounts, including Trial accounts (Just like FF). Compare that to the 14 million that Final Fantasy gained in the 6 years that they have been live.
I predict a large number at release just as any expansion would have and then slowly stabilizing over time and sustaining a decent number for a while, possibly years – that is unless they completely mess it up, but that wouldn’t be “Classic WoW”'s fault at that point.