You are so very very wrong. Yes it favors the horde slightly, but it doesn’t benifits the ally to fight a long battle, so most ppl give up. That’s why we lose, not cause the horde has a slight advantage.
Horde always come back to defend gy’s. Ally don’t, cause it would make the fight longer.
Yeah dominant means ‘stronk’. Glad you figured something out. And don’t BS me with the whole ‘I knew that beforehand’. Your first use of q tells me otherwise. Google knowledge is shallow AND IT SHOWS.
Maybe you can Google why I would need a multivariate model when one factor covaries to a high degree with all other factors you dink. I mean potentially you’ll get some dudes who are just in there to fish or level up.
I’ve made my case. You’ve completely failed to explain yours. Probably because you didn’t think it through, like with everything else in the rest of your life.
Dude i exactly told you what q means the whole time…,you already showed us how you are cherrypicking the conclusions.
You showed us that you starting premises are false,or at least you are again cherrypicking them.
I told you,your sample size was quite small,and biased,and you went through the stochastic way, trying to simulate human behavior at same level than tossing n-times a coin. It doesnt work that way.
If you want to simulate human behavior in bg´s you must go through game theory at least. And ofc dont cherrypicking all the way your conclusions,that is the worst scenario possible if you are trying to apply statistics results .
Your case, is like the trainfail in AV,mounting up and praying for not being hunted down.
And about my case,i told you exactly what to do,in order to win an AV against the Horde,which i cant do for you is win the games.
Oh now we’re talking about the sample size? I mean I come here with a concrete and easy way of testing if the BG is biased or not. Now you wanna talk sampling size? How can you say that the map is not biased at all, that true p is not 0.5 and that the solution lies both within game theory and multivariate testing. WHO IS THE FRAUD HERE SIR? Gibberish. Absolutely weed invested brain mush gibberish. Shame on you.
Yeah i m pretty ashamed,meanwhile you does those “simulations”,i m winning already another AV where the alliance doesnt dismount or care to fight.Life is hard.
This is not the case, so expecting 50% wins is wrong. Hidrasactum is right about: You just picked the conclusion you wanted and found the fastest way to get their with your statistics, based on false assumptions.
Like you understand anything. What is the true p then? 0.45? 0.3? I mean just give a number and you’ll see how low the probability is to have a series of 60 played 3 wins.
p = 0.05 and really, i m being generous,with such tactics.
Ill do the maths for you…
Binomial probability:
P(X = x)= 0.22984524294
Cumulative probability:
P(X <= x)= 0.6472810116
Cumulative probability:
P(X > x) = 0.3527189884
Jesus christ. Game over.
Yes, I had a pretty easy time with statistics at Uni, got an A with pretty little effort… but that’s 6 years ago and who cares? You don’t even need to know anything about statistics to figure out the map isn’t the only variable.
If it was just the map, and all else was equal we would have maybe p=0.4-0.45. The rest is most likely made up by the other variables. Just go back and read what Raoj wrote yesterday in response to you.
I haven’t read the messages before/after your post. But I have a question:
How the hell is AV balanced, if the map design is totally favoring the horde side? Your cave is positioned in such a way, that it cannot become a choke point and you can supply mid as well as base in a nearly uninterrupted manner. Alliance can’t do that. We spawn at the total beginning/end (depends on your standpoint) and can only effectively supply SP and SA.
Next issue: The mid zerg. Horde spawns way closer to mid than Alliance, meaning that you have the advantage when going for SFGY. Issue coming with your respawn cave is also the IBGY. Alliance can take it, yes. But when you have no SH OR SFGY, then alliance is cut short of any supply chains from their players (worst case scenario: SHGY has already been tapped. Best case: SHGY is still ours). Why? Because the Cave respawns 20 horde players and a normal GY respawns only 10. ALSO shorter supply chains, again, when defending IBGY (Cave is really close to IBGY. In the worst case scenario for Alliance (SHGY tapped) we will respawn in SPGY. Long supply chain for IBGY and the 10 player limit.
Continuing on: the SH chokepoint. That is a massive advantage for the Horde. You can defend/hold the chokepoint with a few players, because Alliance MUST go through that chokepoint to play the game. On the other side, the Horde can make a choice, when Alliance holds IBGY: supply the backline and defend or supply the frontline and attack/recapture.
The map totally prefers the Horde side.
It took blizzard more than 4 months to even fix the Galv/Belinda problem, absolutely favoring Horde.
This is totally cherrypicking your facts for your argument’s sake. If you prefer the recreation of Vanilla then it would mean the following:
Now…there is exactly one point that can be changed: the map. Why do we care? The same thing was fixed way back for AV when the map was more “balanced” to help even out the opportunities. That was done for Horde and don’t even deny it.
The same thing could be done right now: Fix the hellhole of a map and balance it out.
Again: cherrypicking. Evidence suggests that alliance used to win even more on the unbalanced crap map in the beginning of AV. With the balancing, mostly because of changing the cave spawn for horde, the odds have been kind of changed, but there were still way more Alliance players and we have the same thing today, just the other way around (more Horde players AND also a heavily Horde favored map design, introduced in Vanilla to even out the winning chances for the Horde).
That’s just factually wrong. The Horde cave was never in deep south in Vanilla in any AV patch. It was moved in TBC. If I am wrong, and there is some old version with the cave in a different location, I AM ALL FOR using that old map and old patch version.
What?
The factions are almost exactly 50/50 balanced and have been for all of Classic:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/614081264751738920/756227454468620308/unknown.png
The only difference is that Alliance outnumber Horde on PvE realms and vise versa. But the battlegrounds all share one large battlegroup with all realms.
It literally can’t be changed because it’s a RECREATION of a game. The TERRAIN is part of the database, the authentic original data that is being used as a RECREATION of a game. They can make minor adjustment to EXPLOITS, but you can’t CHANGE a map for “balance”.
You BELIVE the map is the reason, when in reality it’s the queue and reward system that is the reason. It’s not worth it for alliance to win if it takes to long time. It’s more rewarding to lose fast than to win slow for the faction with a short queue and AV is by design a slow map that can go on for an unlimited time.
AV was changed many times to make it faster and easier to complete by making the NPCs weaker etc. It was never “balanced”.
What are you even talking about? I don’t even know what there is to deny. You make claims that are just plain factually wrong, like with the cave, and other more general and unspecific comments.
Classis is a R E C R E A T I O N of a game. The map is AUTHENTIC and working as INTENDED. You can absolutely tweak the queue and reward system to fix gamebreaking behaviours, but you can’t “fix” a map unless there are some specific EXPLOITS. I am all for fixing exploits that are not intended.
Yes, I agree.
You believe the cave was moved, but it wasn’t.
Where do you find the facts that here were more Alliance queue for AV in Vanilla retail than Horde?
The faction balance is almost exactly 50/50 in Classic. And the map doesn’t heavily favor any faction. The queue and reward system does.
Show me a source for this specific claim or any kind of evidence. If you don’t have that just say that it’s your hypotheses. It’s ok to present hypotheses but not as facts.
Just fyi, the Horde cave started where it is in Classic. The only time it was ever moved, was in Burning Crusade in patch 2.4 and it was in patch 2.3 when they changed the way respawn points work so you almost never resurrect in caves. They also removed basically all elites, brought in resources like the AV in retail and implemented a stackable aura that basically forced players to burn towers and bunkers before they could kill the last boss because of that aura from the warmasters/marshals.
Then there were other changes too, some of which are in Classic’s AV already.
WE WANT 1.5 AV. this is a S**T.
Just asking, why are u not asking to fix wsg as wel, were alliance got Huge advantage with female druids Wall jumping 
i just want to say that during this av weekend ive personally led the alliance to win 6 times with my hunter friend while ranking my shocadin, the trick is to KEEP THE WHOLE ALLIANCE RAID TOGETHER, i usually hide at the tanks by balinda, cap sf as a 40 man group, 1 min before cap i leave group 7+8 behind, and go for ib, while having hunters pull lts from galvs to ib, and teams of 5 caping the towers. the only times ive had this fail is when u have either 10-15 ppl semiafk, or when some animal hunter doesnt understand how to control his pet and he pulls warmasters while we fight the horde. particulary on that bad hunter example, they have cost me 14 games this past weekend alone
edit, ive played a total of 47 games, led 20 of them
No no, it’s because of the map that you lost those games. Come on now, don’t betray your fellow Alliance talking points!
Do you actually think WSG jumps are exclusively available to Night Elf females? As far as I know almost any race/gender combination can pull them off.
I can clearly feel and see the difference in AV pre and during AV weekend.
I’ve lost a few and some wins took over an hour.
Seems like alliance have fought better, coordinated themselves and not bbqing at the hill of shame.
Yes its proven that horde has less runtime from starting cave to the middle, and IBGY is easy to defend (so is SH btw). But yet alliance seem to overcome the “impossible” chance to win as soon as they communicate and fight.
Strange…
No not really.