Some of your points are valid but some things are just wrong.
Those are related. If queue times were more even, the number of rankers would be more even, and the win rate would be more even. Also, queue time is a factor anyway because you are more likely to give up if you are able to instantly join a new game vs having to wait 1h.
And… If you need the whole team to be able to hold at SHGY with reinforcements coming from just around the corner, while the horde reinforcements has to run from IBGY, then the teams are not even.
When premades had just been stopped by blizz the alliance win rate was much better than it is now. My guess is some alliance rankers were still going AV.
The fight starts right at SH GY at the beginning, because horde has a headstart and gets very close to SH GY the same time as alliance reaches it.
If teams are even, then of course eventually horde can be pushed back to a point when reinforcement are at even distances, however some alliance have to stay back at SH, because horde can go around Balinda and attack from the other side.
(Meanwhile horde can easily let IBGY completely abandoned since even if a rogue soft cap it, it doesn’t take any significant effort to take it back.)
The fight usually go back and forth between SH GY and mid field until:
horde caps SH GY when the alliance team advances too far from SH GY and does not leave enough defenders behind
or horde summons their boss
Horde summon site is at the other side of the field so alliance should split into 3 groups to prevent the summon: 1 stay at guarding SH GY, 1 fight at mid field to push horde main attack back and 1 try to prevent the summon.
On the other hand alliance summon can be easily interrupted because the summon site is in the way of the horde attack line.
Some advices capping SF GY, but first of all horde reaches that faster at the beginning and alliance need to split up until it is capped, because if horde caps SH GY while alliance waits for the SF GY timer, then everybody will res up behind the IW choke point and the game is over.
So in case of even teams there is simply no working counter strategy against the current horde meta because it is based on the map advantage and that cannot be changed.
On the contrary: if horde meta could be countered then the number of rankers would be more even and queue time would be more even.
Yes I remember that, it was before AB released and solo rankers had no other option than AV. However the win rate was not higher than few % and mostly because of some lucky RND on the team setups, or thanks to Russians who had faster queues and played rush meta at that time.
Have you ever played premade vs premade in AV? I have, for years. Weird how this advantage only is a factor in Classic…
FACT is that if both sides fight with the objective to WIN, what happens in middle at start have no impact on the end result after 2-3h. But when it’s more rewarding to lose fast compared to win after 2-3h, one side with the short queue will lose, over and over, because the objective is not to win. It’s to win in ranking over your own faction. So winning slow means that you lose. And AV is by design a slow map. It’s absurd to even think that some map details can make on side lose literally 100% of all games. There MUST be other reasons. Use your head. Even on this same damn map Alliance used to win much more in pugs in Classic. Even today, during the weekends they win more, on the same map. It’s the same god damn map as it have been for 14 years. It’s not the map. It’s the reward and queue system. The map may have some part of this, but it’s in no way the main part.
I don’t really want to argue this again when there are several discussions already covering all of this.
I will say this:
The win rate was much, much more than a few % in the first weeks of premades being stopped. You can’t blame it on lucky team setups, lol. I think I actually lost more than I won, and I remember others reporting similar things (in some cases losing 10 times in a row). I’d say we were pretty close to 50-50 at that point.
I believe there is a map advantage for Horde. However, I don’t believe that’s the major reason for the win ratio. The rankers just don’t join AV on alliance, and it’s not due to the map, it’s because honor is so much better elsewhere due to short queues, even if win rate was 50% in AV (once again the queue times have an impact). Horde rankers throw in a game of AV between premades sometimes because it’s good honor and its amplified by the high win rate.
Queue times will not get even because there are more pvpers on horde side.
You have remained in the past.
No alliance plays AV these days for the honor / hour.
Nobody.
Indeed it happened before AB to give up games to lose quickly, but not now.
I’ve been in 3 AVs in a row that lasted more than 2 hours and nobody said let them win. We kept defending SH GY until we could, but at some point SH GY has fallen and the game was over.
The current state of AV is simply not winnable with alliance with the current horde meta unless alliance is extremely overgeared and have luckier team setup with more healers.
You can deny it, but it’s still a fact.
Is that mean 99% of the games are lost because of the map?
Of course not.
If the map would be balanced and all teams would be even all the time, then the winrate would be 50-50% so 50% from that 99% is not the map, but luck, lack of skills, bad tactics, whatever.
So what about the remaining 49%?
As a consequence of unbalanced map, now horde also has better geared players and more high ranks so they have a better player pool than alliance.
But that still does not explain the near 100% winrate.
Because the rest - like it or not - is about the map.
Just think about it: the game can be won by simply capping one of the easier to cap graveyards for one side and needs a twice as superior team and extreme coordination from the other side.
Which one do you think would win?
Ridiculous advantage.
Because at that time when pre-tbc 1.12 patch came out everybody played the rush meta and alliance has advantage if both teams rushes.
That’s why alliance won most of the games at the first few weeks as well: because both side was interested in fast runs.
But the turtle meta with the current map design is just too much advantage to horde.
It’s always hard to accept that you win because of the obvious advantage rather than by your own effort only .
The more successful someone is, the more he thinks his own participation matters the most.
For example 30% of Canadian professional hockey players have born in January and February.
Why does the date of birth makes anyone a better hockey player?
Because schools select young players at the beginning of the year from the same age group and whoever born at the beginning of the year have more developed body since they have almost a year advantage over someone who has born - let’s say - in November.
Of course for ending up as a professional player they still need to work hard and need to be talented, etc., but they get more physical and emotional support at young age, play more, compete more so at the end they are more likely to become a professional.
Does any Canadian professional hockey player admit that his date of birth played a significant role in his professional carrier?
Barely.
This is what happens to horde when pvp racials, AV map unbalance and any other unfair advantage came up as a reason of their better pvp performance. They just simply cannot admit that game design has significant role in their win rate.
It’s not a horde specialty, it’s just human nature.
btw, I think you are right for the most part except: I think the map plays a smaller role; and about the queue times and the role they play. If the horde had the shorter queue they would have the weaker team due to lack of rankers and they would want to play rush tactic. Then the alliance would have both the stronger team and the map advantage, and it would be horde players complaining about map imbalance.
I agree, if both team would rush then Alliance would win way more.
However longer queue is the consequence not the cause.
Horde has found the win meta that is nearly impossible to counter with alliance pugs and that’s what made less and less alliance player queueing up.
So if Alliance plays for honor / hour then that’s the reason for the 100% loss.
But if Alliance does not play for honor / hour then that’s the reason for the 100%.
Sure mare.
It is a self accelerating process: the worse the winrate the longer the queue becomes for the other faction. I played on a few low pop private vanilla servers where there was the original 1.6 AV version and alliance has won most of the games and AV was kinda non-existent outside of AV weekends because horde did not sign up at all while they dominated the other BGs.
What’s your point? It’s completely different in classic, with huge battlegroups and way more PvP oriented players on horde side. In classic the queues have been longer on horde side in every BG. Like I said, the longer queue was there to begin with and the win rate just makes it worse. Horde had longer queue even when alliance had high win rate due to premades. It’s what made premades possible in the first place…
Well, that’s just over simplified and not true. Some examples:
Queue time diff enabled ally premades: impact on win rates
Queue time diff impacts honor efficiency relative to other BGs, which in turn impacts who joins said queue: impact on win rates.
Queue time diff impacts how you play, i.e. with long queue you don’t mind longer games as much: impact on win rates.
EDIT: and of course win rate impacts number of players who joins the queue, which impacts queue time, which then keeps this spiral going until we end up where we are now.
So you are telling that horde pug players keep fighting in AB or WSG even if a premade is farming them at their graveyard or in AV when a Russian premade is locking them into their cave, just because horde has longer queues?
Or do they try to finish the game as quick as possible, since it is obvious that nothing can be done?
Because being locked behind the IW choke point is exactly the same for alliance: every effort to turn the game after that point is just a waste of time.
